Monday, January 22, 2001
Temperatures rising faster than expected
Scientists raise alarm of climate catastrophe
Rapid warming trend could be reversed
by move to alternate power sources

By ALANNA MITCHELL

The planet is moving harder and faster than scientists first imagined toward a troubling new climate era that, if unstopped, could be as catastrophic in its own way as the last Ice Age. Hundreds of the world's top scientists concluded Sunday at a key meeting in Shanghai that average temperatures in at least the Northern Hemisphere are rising more resolutely than predicted just five years ago. A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set to be released Monday in Shanghai, warns that the average temperature could rise between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees over the next 100 years. Five years ago the panel predicted the change would come in at a maximum of 3.5 degrees over that same period. The average global temperature has risen 0.6 degrees over the past 100 years.

If the new predictions come to pass, it will mean that the Earth will be in the throes of the scale of climate change that prompted the Ice Age 20,000 years ago. "At the upper end of the range, it's in the same order of magnitude as that," Henry Hengeveld said in an interview from Shanghai. He is Environment Canada's science adviser on climate change.

While the panel, which includes more than 500 of the world's top scientists, couched blame for the newly irritable climate, its members also concluded that the "observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gases," Mr. Hengeveld said.

That means humans — who produce greenhouse gases from such activities as burning petroleum — bear most, if not all, the responsibility for altering the climate, the scientists agreed. The IPCC also believes that humans have the potential to reverse the warming trend by using alternate power sources and less energy.

This IPCC document, the first revision of its statement from 1996, is by far the strongest warning ever issued on climate change by an international body. It is considered the definitive scientific standard that serves to advise government policies around the world.

"This is an extremely important document for policy internationally on climate change over the next few years," said Matthew Bramley, a PhD in chemistry and senior policy analyst on climate change at the Pembina Institute in Ottawa. "Science is the primary driver for action on climate change," he said, adding, "The science is getting stronger."

In Shanghai, the document was accepted unanimously by the panel, including 123 of the world's leading authorities on climate.

The lead scientists were pushing for even stronger wording because of the overwhelming evidence that the climate damage is "very likely" to be caused by human activity, Mr. Hengeveld said. But they backed down as a compromise.

Nevertheless, the document makes it clear that climate